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Chris Meaney
This was a strange week for NBA scheduling. Wednesday’s eight-game slate is actually on the smaller side for a typical Wednesday. We saw a larger slate Tuesday, which may be the reason. I found one edge in our FTN Bets NBA Model for a total and two early edges in the FTN Bets Player Prop Model for NBA. We are still waiting on props to drop in a few games, but you can see if we find any more edges throughout the day by checking the FTN Bets Tracker. After a 5-0 Tuesday night, let’s try to stay hot with Wednesday’s NBA best bets.
Best NBA Total Bet
Sacramento Kings vs. Houston Rockets Total Over 237
Sacramento is in the top tier of the league for pace and Houston is right around league average. These are two of the least efficient defensive teams in the NBA. Houston allows the third-most points per 100 possessions and Sacramento is not far behind in sixth. Sacramento is a big favorite, because they are efficient on offense too. The Rockets offense is a bit of a mess, but the matchup should help them find easy baskets too. This game should feature an up-tempo style and a lot of bad defense, two things that point toward an over. I expected the total to be 2-3 points higher, so it is one of our biggest edges.
Best NBA Assist Prop Bet
CJ McCollum Under 5.5 Assists
No knock on CJ McCollum here, but Jose Alvarado and Devonte’ Graham have been playing more minutes lately. That means fewer minutes at the point for McCollum. He is still on the floor plenty. He currently is the No. 1 scoring option for the Pelicans. His minutes are the same, but the role has changed. Without Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram on the floor, McCollum is being asked to shoot more and distribute less. He had only one assist last game and while he should beat that here, I am not expecting him to have 6 or more against a very good Celtics defense.
Best NBA Points Prop Bet
De’Aaron Fox Over 25.5 Points
Throw out the last game as that one turned into a blowout, but the three games before that De’Aaron Fox took 20-plus shots. He now draws one of the softest defenses in Houston. The Rockets rank 28th in points allowed per 100 possessions, so this is as good a spot as any for Fox.
