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Chris Meaney
We have six NBA games on the docket for Thursday. Only one of them has a spread below 6.5. Most of them are between 6.5 and 8.5 with The Clippers favored by 12 over the Spurs and the Suns by just 1.5 over the Mavericks as the outliers. We did have a few edges in our NBA Betting Model on FTNBets. One of those edges even made the list for the day’s NBA best bets.
Best NBA Total Bet
New York Knicks @ Boston Celtics Over 223.5
This is the biggest edge we have in our NBA betting model Thursday on FTNBets. We project this game over 230, which is about 7 points above the prop listed. Marcus Smart and Mitchell Robinson both remain out for their respective teams, and both who contribute more on defense. Replacing either of them is a downgrade on defense and upgrade on the offensive side of the ball for their respective teams. That should lead to a bit more scoring and an over being more likely.
Best NBA Points Prop Bet
Jalen Duren Over 10.5 Points
Jalen Duren has the Dennis Rodman prop bet line. His points are rebound props are both set at 10.5, but the rebounds are juiced to -135, while the points are standard -110 on BetMGM and DraftKings. You typically do not see a guy who projects for a single stat category with a prop number equal to his points. Even in those rare cases, you usually do not see that stat juiced higher than his scoring. I do not think the rebound prop is a bad one either, but if he’s going to get those 11+ rebounds it means he’s likely to play 30 or more minutes. With Isaiah Stewart questionable, he did it last time out and ended up with a double-double. I also like the double-double prop for him, +120 on DraftKings.
Best NBA Rebound Prop Bet
Julius Randle Over 11.5 Rebounds
This number was too low and is rightly getting heavily bet on all the books. Everyone moved it up already, and it’s gone to 12.5 on some and is as high as -135/-140 on others. Julius Randle has been a monster on the glass lately, sailing past this prop number in eight of his last nine games. In seven of those games, he finished with 15 or more rebounds. This projects to be a close game where he sees full run. It is not a soft matchup, but his dominance on the boards with Mitchell Robinson out still gives me confidence to keep rolling with this over.
