NBA Best Bets of the Day (4/16)

Welcome to the first round of the NBA Playoffs! Sunday brings us four incredible first-round matchups with challenging spreads.

Three of today’s four games feature point spreads greater than 7.5 points. With four of today’s six teams enjoying ample rest, there are several opportunities to find value among the rosters. The FTN NBA Betting model has been very profitable throughout the season, so make sure to find where we project our biggest edges on the NBA Sunday slate. 

NBA Best Bets

Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Nikola Jokic Over 25.5 Points

(-111, FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Nuggets are getting minimal love from the public, despite earning the No. 1 overall seed in the Western Conference. Nikola Jokic is fully healthy and has been dominant all season, especially at home. He is shooting over 64% from the field and 37% from 3P range at Ball Arena and finished the season averaging 26.3 points during the month of April. 

Jokic has beaten this number in six of the last nine games against Minnesota and posted a triple-double (31 points, 11 rebounds, and 13 assists) in just 31 minutes against the Timberwolves in January. 

I expect Minnesota to keep this game close, especially after two play-in game battles over the last week. A healthy Jokic should translate to over 25.5 points tonight in Game 1. 

Our NBA model projects Jokic for 25 points, but I think a close game puts the two-time MVP over this number. 

Los Angeles Clippers at Phoenix Suns

Kawhi Leonard Under 27.5 Points

(-115, FanDuel)

The absence of Paul George allows the Phoenix defense to focus on limiting Kawhi Leonard, who averaged just 17.3 PPG against the Suns this season. Even during the entire month of March when he played 11 games, Leonard posted just 24.5 PPG. 

I have major blowout concerns with this matchup, and our FTN Model has a 65.3% chance of this game going under the 225 total. Similar to the Celtics-Hawks matchup yesterday, I see a Phoenix cover but an under on the total. If this game is a blowout, Leonard could be rested for Game 2. We project the Clippers star for just 25 points, 2.5 points below this high number. 

Leonard has gone under this number in four of the last five meetings with Phoenix, and I don’t see him eclipsing that tonight. 

Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Chris Paul Under 13.5 Points

(-104, FanDuel)

We have all watched Chris Paul during the NBA Playoffs. As one of the greatest point guards of all-time, his primary focus is to get his teammates involved. The addition of Kevin Durant gives Paul another superior scorer to set up, making his own scoring less of a priority. Paul has gone below this number in two of the last three games and averaged just 12.6 PPG during the month of March. 

Paul’s last three games have been 25, 22 and 16-point performances, skewing this number even higher. The return of Durant, in a game where the Suns are projected for a comfortable win, puts me on his under 13.5 points at FanDuel. 

Our model projects Paul for just 12.1 points, 1.4 points below this mark. I’m grabbing the under on the 37-year-old point guard.