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Chris Meaney
The NBA Conference Championships kicked off in the West Tuesday, with the Eastern Conference tipping off Wednesday. The Boston Celtics will be hosting the Miami Heat in a best-of-seven series to see who moves on to the NBA Finals.
Our NBA Betting Model does not have a major edge in the spread or total market to discuss, and very few 10% edges exist in our Player Prop Model. I only have two NBA best bets for Wednesday’s game, and both happen to be in the rebounding market.
Best NBA Rebound Prop Bets
Robert Williams Under 7.5 Rebounds
Robert Williams played in just one game against the Heat this year and grabbed 8 rebounds in 30 minutes of action. While that is a great number for him, I doubt he tops that in this series. He was needed more last series to bang with a big body like Joel Embiid. In this series, the Heat will use Bam Adebayo and Kevin Love, two guys who tend to play further away from the basket and are not the same type of players. This should mean more Al Horford at the center spot and less minutes for Williams. Less minutes would translate to less rebounds, and that is why we project him under 7.5.
Bam Adebayo Over 8.5 Rebounds
Bam Adebayo has averaged over 9 rebounds per game during the playoffs. He averaged over 9 rebounds in the four regular season games he played against the Celtics. We project him for 10 here, and that is a nice edge over the 8.5 number his prop is sitting at. Many books already bumped this to -140 or -150. Others moved it to 9.5 rebounds at even money or +110. The Celtics are likely to go smaller to counter the Heat’s front court with Jayson Tatum and Al Horford matching up against the likes of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. If so, Bam could end up being the biggest and most athletic center on the floor for much of the game.
