NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
It’s hard to believe the 2024 MLB season is here already, but we are now a couple weeks into spring training action, and Opening Day is just two weeks away with the Dodgers and Padres kicking off the year in South Korea.
In this series, we will be looking at the MLB awards outright markets, including MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year to find the best value across the board. Today, we will take a look at the Rookie of the Year Award.
2024 MLB Rookie of the Year Favorites
American League: Jackson Holliday
+350, Caesars
Since this market was initially posted, all offseason I’ve questioned why Jackson Holliday is favored to win this award. At its initial opening, I thought Evan Carter deserved to be the favorite, considering the production he provided in his small 2023 sample, in addition to the postseason. As the offseason progressed, and even more so now as we’ve seen a small spring training sample, I genuinely have no idea how Wyatt Langford isn’t favored. I’ve spoken with our own MLBDream at length about this specific market, and he does not believe Holliday will break camp with the Orioles. It makes sense, given the amount of depth they have in their infield, in addition to Holliday having only played 54 games above Single-A. Will we see Holliday at the big-league level in 2024? I have zero doubt we will. I just don’t see it happening until the summer, and that makes his current price quite puzzling.
National League: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
+200, BetMGM
It has become increasingly rare to see a pitcher win the Rookie of the Year, as voters tend to view the everyday player as being more productive. I think this is a much different case than most rookie pitchers, however, and that includes Kodai Senga from a season ago, who put up stellar rookie numbers. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, as I discussed in the Cy Young piece, should be a bona fide ace the second he debuts. The last similar case to this, at least that I can recall, was Stephen Strasburg back in 2010. Of course, he debuted in June, so he was never going to be an option to win the award, but that is simply how rare it is to see a true ace as a rookie. It also helps that Yamamoto will very likely be on the team that wins the most games in Major League Baseball. This is as chalky as chalk gets, but it is very likely going to take a special offensive season to take down Yamamoto for this award.
2024 MLB Rookie of the Year Best Bets
AL: Wyatt Langford
+600, Bet365
If you’ve subscribed since the winter, you likely already have Wyatt Langford to win Rookie of the Year at +2200. I still find value here at +600 over at Bet365. If you want to talk about production, look no further than Langford, who in just 161 minor-league at bats last season, slashed .360/.480/.677, tacking on 10 home runs, 30 RBIs, 12 stolen bases and an ISO over .300. At Florida, he slashed .373/.498/.784 with 21 home runs. Langford probably should have gone No. 1 overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, but instead, he ended up in Texas and will likely break camp hitting in the middle of a lineup that won the World Series this past October. If Langford ends up hitting between Corey Seager and Adolis García, his production is going to skyrocket. Yes, Evan Carter is a very deserving name among the favorites, but Carter won’t match Langford’s production in the power department, though, he will have a high OBP, along with Stolen Bases. Ultimately, Langford’s overall production should prevail here. This kid is a special talent.
NL: Jackson Merrill
+7500, BetRivers
So, if I’m going to fade Yamamoto in this market, I’m going to go for a home run (pun intended) with a longshot who carries some upside and a high floor. The Padres seem quite serious about Jackson Merrill breaking camp. While he’s not overly flashy in the power department, he’s a huge contact guy who could ultimately find his way into the top half of a relatively top-heavy Padres lineup, which would certainly help his overall production in 2024. I’d consider this more of a value bet than an overly realistic chance of winning the award and I want to note that there are a handful of guys in the +2500 to +6000 range who have no business being shorter than Merrill (Max Meyer, AJ Smith-Shawver, DL Hall, Marco Luciano, Hunter Goodman, Tyler Black, Matt Mervis, Gavin Stone, Paul Skenes, Dylan Crews). You could certainly do a lot worse here.
